Climate Change and Food Security
Climate Change and Food Security Nexus in Pakistan
M. Mohsin Iqbal* and Arshad M. Khan**
The economy of Pakistan is primarily agrarian. The production system which is predominantly irrigation uses 97 percent of the available river water and provides over 90 percent of the agricultural produce. The productive resources of land and water, which provide a base for food production, are limited rather dwindling due to, inter alia, the changing climate. Climate change is exerting pressure on these resources both directly (e.g. through increased glacier melt, increased evapotranspiration, increased land degradation) and indirectly (e.g. via enhancing processes such as denitrification leading to emission of Greenhouse Gases and unavailability of plant nutrients and increasing crop water requirements). Not only is the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as floods, droughts and cyclones on the increase, there are serious consequences for standing crops, apart from immeasurable damage to life and property.
At the Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), studies based on simulation models have been conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on the productivity of major food crops. Using crop growth simulation models, Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat and CERES-Rice, the impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration levels were studied on the Growing Season Length (or crop life cycle) and grain yield of wheat and Basmati rice crops in different ecological zones of Pakistan. The results obtained showed that the Growing Season Length (GSL) of wheat crop decreased, in all the ecological zones with each degree rise in temperature, but the magnitude of decrease was different in different zones. The GSL of Basmati rice also decreased in the semi-arid zone of central Punjab which is essentially the only Basmati rice growing area in Pakistan. The grain yield of wheat also decreased, with rising temperature, in all the ecological zones except the Northern Mountainous zone where the yield increased. Low temperature is a constraint in this region hence increase in temperature, up to 4°C, was beneficial. Like wheat, the paddy yield of Basmati rice also decreased with increasing temperatures in the semi-arid region of Central Punjab.
The paper will discuss food security prospects of Pakistan towards the end of this century in the light of above analyses while taking into consideration other climate-related (e.g. uncertainties in irrigation water supplies, insect pests and weeds) and climate-independent parameters.
 * Dr. M. Mohsin Iqbal is head of Agriculture Section at the Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan. He holds a Ph.D. degree in Soil Science from McGill University, Canada, and has over 30 years of research experience in the fields of agriculture and biology.
 ** Dr. Arshad M. Khan is the Executive Director, Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan. He holds a Ph.D. degree in Physics from the University of Birmingham, UK.
Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in the Context of Pakistan
Javeria Afzal *
The issue of climate change is the priority in current global debate. The scientific evidence is enormous, however, the social impacts of climate change and how people’s lives will change is still in its early stages. The fact remains that our climate has already changed, and thus countries have to deal with the consequences. Climate-related events do not automatically translate into disasters. It is the overall level of vulnerability and capacity that will determine if societies can adapt to climatic changes and therefore suffer fewer losses associated with extreme weather events (Duarte and Norton 2005). Thus it is very important to understand how people’s lives and livelihoods will change as a result of climate change, do people have the capacities to adapt to changing weather conditions and what will be the impact of this additional risk on those who already are confronted with natural disasters.
Risks associated with climate change increase communities’ exposure to poverty, hunger, disease, mortality and displacement. These risks are more disastrous for the communities that are already at risk to frequent natural hazards and have vulnerabilities that will expose them more to the impacts of climate change. In contrast to well-known single hazard events (e.g. floods, earthquakes), climate change is a multi-hazard phenomenon. Addressing climate change and its consequences therefore requires a multi-hazard approach, which implies focusing on different hazards and on different vulnerabilities simultaneously. The likelihood that there would be extreme weather events in the future, areas that are prone to droughts might experience flash floods is a new quality of risks posed by climate change (Birkmann 2007).
Pakistan is a disaster prone country and is frequently exposed to natural hazards like floods, drought and cyclones. These hazards when combined with the vulnerabilities in the shape of poverty, exclusion, inequality and inappropriate political decisions and actions make people more susceptible to the impacts of hazards. The agricultural sector is most vulnerable to climate change, and changes in cropping and productivity as a result of weather changes will affect the poor rural communities of the country. Thus any decline in the sector in terms of shifts in production and price patterns will add to the vulnerabilities of the people.
Government of Pakistan’s reaction to climate change debate is not very focused although the government has made international commitments to climate change by ratifying the Framework convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Additionally, the Ministry of Environment has taken the lead by forming a climate change cell, clean development mechanism strategy and a national committee (TAP), which is chaired by the prime minister. But the actual outcome from these newly created structure is yet to be seen. However, being one of the 16 member countries of the “Adaptation Fund Board” represents a unique opportunity to Government of Pakistan to play an active role in the global debate and negotiations on climate change.
Objectives and Methodology
This paper proposes to apply a disaster risk management framework with special emphasis on social vulnerabilities to help design adaptation strategies. The framework will identify measures that can be taken at the household, local, national and regional levels to cope with climate change impacts. The paper will undertake a research-based approach to analyze vulnerabilities of communities to climate change and their ability to cope and adapt.
Main expected findings
It is expected that the analysis and the research will lead to the following broad findings:
- The inclusion of climatic risks in the design and implementation of development initiatives is vital to reduce vulnerability and enhance sustainability.
- Adaptation strategies must be developed locally, in tune with the needs and vulnerabilities of communities.
- Appropriate risk reduction measures like infrastructure and diverse livelihoods options reduce vulnerability of the people.
- The preparation of a NAPA (National Adaptation Plan for Action) for Pakistan is pertinent and can be used as a tool to highlight the issue of vulnerabilities and actions that can be taken to reduce people’s exposure to risks.
References
BIRKMANN, J. (2007), Climate Change in Vulnerability, United Nations University Institute for Environmental & Human Security.
Available at <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTENVMAT/64199955-1203372965627/21652254/Adapting_to_Climate_Change.pdf>
DUARTE, M. and Norton, P. (2005) ‘Adapting to climate change’, Environment matters, pp.24-27.
Available at <www.cedim.de/download/03_Birkmann.pdf>
 * Javeria Afzal is working as Programme Coordinator – Disaster risk reduction & climate change at Oxfam GB-Pakistan programme. She has experience of planning and implementing community based disaster risk reduction projects.
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