Costs of Conflict in South Asia
Armed Conflict and Tourism: Cost and Consequences in Nepal
Bishnu Raj Upreti*
Tourism is normally perceived as contributor to economic growth, accelerator of intercultural understanding and harmonious relationship, fostering goodwill and peace. It is also said to be a bridge between the psychological and cultural distances that separate people of different races, religions, economic development, etc. Tourism is one of the mechanisms to address the root causes of conflict and social tensions such as poverty, injustice, inequity, and marginalization as well as a tool that accelerates peace and harmony. This paper examines the causes and consequences of the armed conflict on tourism, and the role of tourism in escalating conflict and promoting peace in Nepal. It also assesses the strengths and weaknesses of tourism in Nepal.
The armed conflict waged by Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist (CPN-M) for a decade (1996 - 2006) has created enormous impact on the tourism sector in Nepal. The arrival of tourists during the armed conflict varied considerably. It enjoyed a healthy growth till 1999 and quickly declined by 2002. A number of conflict-related activities like political strikes, curfews, intimidations, forceful shutdowns of big multinational companies and hotel, negative travel warnings issued by foreign affairs departments of tourist generating countries and unrealistic international media coverage became compelling reasons behind the fall in Nepal’s image from a peaceful tourist land to an insecure destination. Decreasing number of tourists consequently negatively affected the tourism industry and led to closure of many hotels, airlines and travel agencies, which aggravated unemployment and increased livelihood insecurity.
Though the tourist sector was affected by armed insurgency, national level marketing and promotional efforts such as Visit Nepal Year 1998, Golden Jubilee Celebration of the ascend of Mountain Everest in 2003, Destination Nepal Campaign 2002-03 and a number of press conferences, meetings and briefings related to tourism industry were adapted as coping strategies. Once the government of Nepal and the CPN – M signed the ‘Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)’ on 21 November 2006, the situation in this sector began changing. The tourism sector is one of the important contributors of Nepal's economy. Sustaining peace in Nepal is closely associated with sustaining (economically viable, environmentally friendly and socio-culturally acceptable to laocal commuities) tourism sector in Nepal.
 * Dr. Bishnu Raj Upreti is Regional Coordinator of NCCR North-South based in Kathamndu (Nepal) and actively engaged in teaching and research in the field of resource and environmental conflict, and development.
India and the Political and Ideological Utility of the Kashmir Question
Nathalène Reynolds*
Are the Indian Union, which carried out its first nuclear test in 1974, and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, that confirmed its nuclear status in 1998, gradually relinquishing their use of propaganda that had long underpinned haughty nationalisms and particular interpretations of the principle events in the recent history of the sub-continent that were taught to secondary school and university students? And will they acknowledge that the process of consolidating their young nationalisms (at least in their modern avatars) has come to an end? The two states, which show no sign of deciding that their arms race should also come to an end, seem ready to put a priority on economic and energy issues, discussing gas pipelines that would deliver to Indian territory, one coming from Iran, the other beginning in Turkmenistan. There remains the question of India’s affirmation of power: is it guarantor of peace in the region, or is this, as some Pakistani commentators suggest, a matter for alarm?
Focusing on the Kashmir issue, and in particular developments since the end of the 1980s, the paper will examine the implementation of patriotism and nationalism deemed indispensable in the consolidation of the contemporary Indian state. With the start of a significant militarization of Jammu and Kashmir, was the country walking on a tightrope, as the army was tempted to abandon its traditional apolitical role thereby threatening democratic institutions? Defense expenditure weighs on the state budget and it is difficult to gauge the influence of the ‘military-industrial complex’; much-needed development resources are in a sense ‘diverted’ to military purposes.
The prolongation of the struggle against ‘terrorism’ in Indian Jammu and Kashmir raises certain questions. Is the territory in a sense a ‘necessary evil’, as the Indian state can station a significant part of its armed forces there? In any event, immediately abandoning the path of negotiations at the start of the Kashmiri insurrection at the end of the 1980s, New Delhi did not hesitate to turn the Valley into a kind of area of exception in which there was little room for safe-guarding the fundamental rights guaranteed by the Constitution: the declared attachment to the concept of popular sovereignty there went against the concept of the Indian nation.
Source of data: British National Archives in London, Archives du Quai d’Orsay in Paris (French diplomatic archives); a wide range of ‘partisan’ articles and longer works.
* Dr. Nathalène Reynolds is a holder of a doctorate in the History of International Relations (University of Paris I, Panthéon-Sorbonne). She subsequently spent two years in Indian Jammu and Kashmir. She has published a historical study entitled 'Le Cachemire dans le conflit indo-pakistanais (1947-2004)' (Kashmir in the Indo-Pakistan Conflict, 1947-2004, Harmattan, Paris, 2005).
Armed Conflict in Nepal and its Impact on Girls: A Qualitative Analysis of Risks and Vulnerabilities in Kathmandu and Nepalgunj
Sulava Piya* and Sagar Raj Sharma**
The armed conflict in Nepal has displaced more than 600,000 people, where many have either migrated to India or moved to other urban and peri-urban cities within Nepal. The problem of displacement has had a significant impact on their livelihood at the place of destination where girls are more vulnerable to exploitation and abuses. The issue of young, displaced girls demands a separate study and intervention with respect to the risks and vulnerabilities that they face. Since the issue has not received attention either by the state or the related organizations, this research-based paper aims to explore the risks faced by the young, displaced girls, particularly between 15 and 25 years of age in urban settings, and the consequences of the risks in opting for their livelihood strategies.
The findings have been interpreted as per the Sustainable Livelihood Framework given by the Department for International Development (DFID) and (Rural Livelihood Strategies (RLS). Attempt has also been made to link vulnerabilities of the girls with the characteristic of urbanization. The paper is based on a few case studies and focus group discussions done in Kathmandu and Nepalgunj, the largest urban centers in Nepal, where most of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) have taken shelter. The situation of displaced girls was found to be different in these places. In terms of livelihood options, the girls in Kathmandu were found to be more engaged in 'third grade jobs' where the risk is high and the pay is less; whereas in Nepalgunj, the girls were not engaged in any major income generating activities. The girls in Kathmandu were more vulnerable to harassments and other forms of abuses. Though in Rajhena Camp in Nepalgunj, some girls admitted feeling insecure, others did not come across any serious problems. In both the places, the girls reported of depression, hatred and irritability.
Based on the above and similar other findings, this paper argues that IDPs, especially girls of 15-25 years, are the hardest hit by conflict and they have suffered both during and after the war. Gender balance and equality determines the development of any society and feeling of security ensures harmony. Hence, the attempt of genuine peace building and conflict resolution is not be possible without properly addressing the issues of vulnerabilities and risks faced by these girls.
 * Sulava Piya is a Masters’ level student of Human and Natural Resources Studies Center (HNRSC), Kathmandu University and is presently working with the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) North-South as Research Officer.
 ** Dr. Sagar Sharma is the Head of Department of Human and Natural Resources Studies Center (HNRSC), Kathmandu University. He is an experienced academician and a practitioner and has worked as a Consultant in various international organizations.
Costs of Balochistan Conflict
Faisal Nadeem Gorchani*
Balochistan conflict, over the years, has become a major concern facing Pakistan today. The deep-rooted conflict has brought manifold negative impacts on the potential prospects of the people of Balochistan. The non-resolution of the conflict has progressively pushed Baloch nationalists towards extreme position that is unacceptable to the Federation. The province and its people have suffered active nationalist insurgencies and five major military operations by the Federation, eroding all the possibilities of harmony and trust between the conflicting parties. Even until now, despite the formation of nationalist coalition government in Balochistan followed by many confidence-building measures by the present civilian federal government after general elections in early 2008, the province continues to suffer from a military operation, and an active insurgency by nationalists.
Balochistan is a thinly populated but resource-rich province while its unique location makes it strategically extremely important. The Baloch people view themselves as marginalized and exploited by the Federation on all accounts including being deprived of their share of dues from local and national resources. The Federation on the other hand holds Baloch nationalists responsible for anti-state ambitions and actions. Although provincial autonomy is a demand of all the smaller provinces of the country, Balochi people have been the most vociferous upholders of this demand. The decades long struggle, at times only political, and militant at other occasions, has cost Baloch people rather heavily. While there have been direct costs in terms of human life and property, there have also been opportunity costs to the Baloch people. Although still in the quantification process, this study highlights the tremendous economic, political, socio-developmental, psychological and opportunity costs caused by the conflict to both the parties involved.
* Faisal Nadeem Gorchani is an Associate Coordinator Advocacy at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Pakistan
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