Abstracts

Regional Cooperation for an Energy-Secure South Asia: Possibilities and Dividends

Deepti Mahajan*

Abstract
In the backdrop of the need to enhance energy security, and the imperative to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts, the paper will highlight possibilities for energy cooperation amongst South Asian countries, by examining complementarities and common concerns and map the energy cooperation – sustainable development – peace linkage.

Energy cooperation in South Asia, even while the region remains energy deficit in aggregate, would mean efficient utilization of the region’s resources, increase in reliability of energy supply, economy in operationalization of initiatives, mutual support in contingencies, and confidence-building (Lama, 2005).

At the bilateral level, energy engagement is being pursued yet immense potential lies untapped. Overcoming inertia, assessing further possibilities, and harnessing them is key whilst taking into account the geopolitical, economic and technical risks involved such as:

• Trade in natural gas with Burma and Bangladesh, and in hydro-electricity with Bhutan, Burma and Nepal.
• Joint oil stock-piling to meet requirements during contingencies (drawing lessons from the experience of the International Energy Agency).
• Cooperation for energy infrastructure and facilitation of energy transit, in order to open up access routes to energy rich regions such as Central Asia (as in the case of the IPI pipeline).
• Development and dissemination of renewable energy technology, banking on India’s experience. 
• A regional renewable energy fund.

Regional energy architecture needs to be built at all levels, from bilateral to multilateral. For instance, interconnection of the electricity grids of India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh through the junction of the borders has been shown to be beneficial for all parties (World Bank, 2007). The paper will also delve into initiatives proposed by SAARC, USAID-SARI and BIMS-TEC, and their feasibility.

Cooperation in the energy sector will help South Asia chart a growth pathway that is sustainable and low-carbon, by cutting supply risks, and facilitating fuel substitution and shifting to renewables. Also, energy engagement can lead to spill-over cooperation in other sectors, growing interdependence and stakes in each other’s stability, and consequently to peaceful inter-state relations.  

Sources of data for the paper will include: review of literature on regional cooperation, multi-level governance, energy trade, energy cooperation in South Asia; reports of regional/multilateral organizations and banks (SAARC, World Bank, ADB); IEA, EIA databases and news reports.

It is hoped that the paper will provide in-depth analysis on possible and viable energy cooperation initiatives in South Asia; outcomes of this cooperation and costs involved in non-cooperation; mapping of the energy cooperation – sustainable development – peace linkage; and policy recommendations for national governments and regional groups.

References:
Lama, M. (2005) ‘Integrating Stakeholders in Energy Cooperation,’ South Asia Journal, Issue 9: http://www.southasianmedia.net/Magazine/journal/9-intergrating_eng_co.htm
(Accessed 24 July 2008).
World Bank (2007) Potential and Prospects for Regional Energy Trade in South Asian Region, South Asia Region: World Bank.

* Deepti Mahajan is a Research Associate at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India. She was earlier with Women in Security, Conflict Management and Peace (WISCOMP), and has a Master’s degree in International Relations from the University of Nottingham, UK

Building of Dams in the Himalayas: Energy at what Cost?

Shripad Dharmadhikary*

This study looks at the large number of hydropower dams proposed in the Himalayan region of Pakistan, India, Nepal and Bhutan, which is emerging, as a new frontier of dam building in the world. It looks at the social, political and economic contexts for the dam-building programs in these countries. It outlines the issues at stake, the actors involved, the responses of civil society and affected people's groups and the likely developmental impacts of these projects.

It finds that while these projects are being justified on the grounds of economic development and electricity needs, and that there are real and growing needs of electricity in these countries, even energy crises in several countries, the real drivers of the dam building programs are different.

The paper finds that the developmental impacts of the projects are likely to be different from the claims of meeting energy needs of the poor and the marginalized sections. These projects, especially the large number of projects are expected to be built by private developers. Owners are likely to generate high cost power, catering mainly to the elites, and decrease access for the weaker sections of the society.

At the same time, the projects will have serious social, environmental and cultural impacts, several of which are unique to the Himalayan location. Projects are likely to bring in an influx of outsiders and threaten the identity of several of the tribes in the region as they are expected to destroy the natural environment that is a key part of the culture of these tribes. Due to the large number of dams planned, the cumulative downstream impacts could be felt as far down as the Indus delta and Bangladesh.

Climate change threatens to alter the fundamental basis of the planning of these projects – especially the water flow regimes of the rivers in the region that are glacier and snow melt dependent. The melting of glaciers could mean higher flows initially – with possible threats to dam safety – and then much lower flows, impacting their performance. The intensity of precipitation is likely to increase, with dangers of higher floods.

Sedimentation, already a serious problem for dams in the region is likely to aggravate as global warming leads to higher intensity of precipitation, more precipitation falling as rain than snow and melting of permafrost, all resulting in higher erosion.

All this calls for a re-look at the dam building, simultaneously developing alternative solutions for meeting electricity needs.

* Shripad Dharmadhikary is Coordinator, Manthan Adhyayan Kendra and is working in Badwani, Madhya Pradesh, India. He is an engineer by training and author of the book "Unravelling Bhakra". Presently he is working as a consultant for International Rivers South Asia Program and also serves on the "International Advisory Board" of International Rivers. For over 12 years, he has been a full time activist with the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA Struggle to Save the Narmada). The NBA is a mass movement of the people affected by the large dams on the river Narmada in western India.

Locked-in Energy and Transport Policies of Pakistan

Muhammad Imran*

“Over the past decade, ‘sustainable energy’ has emerged as the universally agreed goal in the development field” (Imran and Low, 2005). Pakistan Vision 2030 clearly links energy and sustainable development for an improved standard of living in urban and regional areas. The focus of the Vision is to shift energy use from oil and gas to alternate energy sources due to continuously rising oil prices and future depletion of local gas reserves. Therefore, the Federal Government Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF 2005-10) plans to reduce dependence on oil from 30 percent in 2004 to 18.5 percent by 2030. Similarly, planning has been underway to reduce dependence on gas from 50 percent in 2004 to 45 percent by 2030.

Transport is one of the largest sectors, which conventionally depends on oil and gas throughout the world. Similarly, in Pakistan, the transport sector is the second largest (32 percent) consumer of energy after the industrial sector, with demand growing sharply. The reason behind this increase lies in the Government of Pakistan’s (GoP) transport policy, which works against its energy policy. The main aim of the transport policy in Pakistan is based on promotion of private vehicles’ use by building larger and better roads. In contrast, energy efficient transport modes like walking, cycling and public transport are declining, particularly in urban areas due to lack of investment. As argued by Imran and Low (2005), what makes things worse is the belief that encouraging Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in the transport sector will overcome increasing demand. Although, CNG is an environmentally friendly fuel and may help meet short term demand in the transport sector, in the long term, promotion of CNG alone will not lead to holistic management of continuously increasing motorization.

This paper tries to identify the gaps and contradictions in the energy and transport policies of Pakistan and suggest measures in order to achieve energy targets set in the MTDF, as well as the ambitions of Pakistan Vision 2030. With specific reference to the large urban areas of Pakistan, “documentary and contextual analysis will provide greater understanding of the ways energy and transport policies and practices evolved” (Imran and Low 2005) and worked separately over time. The research will significantly contribute to the debate on sustainable energy and transport in the context of developing countries.

References:
Imran, Muhammad and Low, Nicholas (2005), “Sustainable Urban Transport in Pakistan: Threats and Opportunities” in Environment 2005 - International Conference on Sustainable Transportation in Developing Countries, Jan 30 - Feb 3, 2005, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

* Dr. Muhammad Imran is a Lecturer in Resource and Environmental Planning, School of People, Environment & Planning, Massey University, New Zealand.

Energy Trade, Peace, and Conflict in South Asia: The Case of Pakistan’s Gwadar Port

Moeed Yusuf*

Energy trade is the latest addition to the quiver of ‘trade peace theorists’. Energy fits the classic peace theory argument whereby interdependence of economies is seen as a potential means to ameliorate conflict and promote positive economic and social interaction. South Asia presents an excellent case study to test the theory given that the region satisfies both conditions: it has historically been ridden with inter-state conflict and remains acutely energy dependent; in essence, countries like Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and even Iran face competing pulls from economic and strategic rationales.

While futuristic, a pivotal question – this is also the focus of this research – is whether energy trade can change the traditional contours of inter-state relations in South Asia. Thus far, the debate on the energy trade - peace linkage is ideologically split between the realist and liberal theorists. This paper seeks to combine the two views to illustrate the interplay between inter-state tensions and critical energy requirements. The case study examined in this paper is Pakistan’s efforts to develop a modern port at Gwadar. Largely ignored on this count, the port sits atop an overwhelming majority of the world’s energy transport and will also potentially serve as a key energy transit route for China, and perhaps even India.

We adopt a political economy approach to study the rationale behind the Gwadar port and implications it has for inter-state relations. To do so, we analyze the positions and interests of all major stakeholders to predict whether the realist or liberal peace theorists would be vindicated by this venture. Essentially we question whether Gwadar would ease the energy security concerns in South Asia by providing a dependable and cheaper transit route to western China, western India, and Afghanistan or if its presence would realign the strategic balance of power, thus leading to greater competition?

Generalizing from this case study, we argue that energy trade is likely to produce opportunities for both cooperation and confrontation in South Asia; to determine the impact of a particular case, the cost-benefit analysis must not only internalize the direct costs and gains for the countries involved but also the reactions (and thus role played) by other stakeholders (read external parties) that may feel politically, economically, or strategically affected by such trade ventures.

* Moeed Yusuf is a Graduate Fellow at the Fredrick L. Pardee Center for the study of the Longer Range Future at Boston University and a Visiting Associate at SDPI.