Siachen
is the only Glacier of Karakorum range melting with unprecedented rate, the
cause of which is the military presence in the area and not global warming. The
high-resolution images of the Siachen glacier show deep cracks every 10 feet
(crevasses), both in longitudinal and transverse directions. The retreat of the
glacier is also visible by horizontal expansion of glacial lakes throughout the
glacier, but the most alarming sign is the vertical thinning of glaciers, which
is aggravating the widening of crevasses at a massive scale.
India’s
and Pakistan’s claim over Siachen glacier has turned the region into the
highest battleground on Earth. Since, April 1984, both the countries have
maintained permanent military presence up to the height of over 22,500 ft. To
facilitate the forces to defend their position, both countries, especially
India, has developed cantonments, forward base-camps, training schools,
aviation workshops and huge ammunition storages in the area. The
infrastructure, including several bunkers has also been developed by cutting
and melting of glacial ice through chemicals. To facilitate troops, in the
inhospitable terrain and extreme weather conditions, a kerosene pipeline has
also been laid down on main glaciers by the Indian Army. Kerosene is then
supplied for stoves provided at every igloo (post) for heating and cooking
purposes.
All these extraordinary activities of war at Siachen glacier, coupled with
hourly helicopter flights, the only mode of transport in the region — for
carrying supplies like ration, kerosene, medicines, fibre huts and snow
scooters to the glacier has aided melting on an unprecedented rate, by reducing
the glacier’s icy mass balance, the most sensitive indicator of climate change.
In first year of occupation, Siachen glacier started loosing ice, which created
deceptive crevasses hidden by fresh snow, coupled with sudden blizzards and
avalanches, the landscape has caused heavy causalities on both side.
Acknowledging the Siachen glacier melting and thinning, Northern Command at
Simla in 1985, requested College of Military Engineering, Pune, to quantify the
rate of melting and glacial ice mass loss. Five meteorological stations were
set-up including one at an elevation of 21000 feet just two-kilometre below Sia
Kangri (height 24,370 feet). These stations, compiled the data over years and
the results were published after strict scrutiny by Directorate of Military
Intelligence, Delhi. Military presence had raised the temperature of the
glacier i.e. prior to the occupation it was 2.6 C which rose to 10.2 C 1991. To
quantify the melting of glacier, measurement of mass balance (MB) method is
used, which is the difference between the amount of snow and ice that melts.
The mass balance of glacier was found negative. In subsequent years the related
data was not made public.
However, the devastating floods in Nubra River, which emerges from the glacier,
speaks for itself and is indicative of the rate of abnormal melting. In 2010,
Indian Army officially notified that 33 soldiers were washed away in flash
floods. On the Pakistani side, dead bodies of three soldiers were returned to
Indian authorities.
If the reader can recall that Siachen and Lea City also received an
unprecedented cloudburst in August 2010 that claimed 200 lives coupled with
extensive damage to property and infrastructure. Then it must be asked what
caused the cloudburst? And if the root cause was discovered, why has it not
been addressed?
The Siachen conflict has changed the climate within the region. In Ladakh,
three new airports have been developed, for logistical support to Indian troops
at Siachen. Leh, the district headquarter of Ladakh was connected with Army
Head Quarter Delhi through Manali-Leh-Highway; a project undertaken by the
Indian army. All these war specific developments changed the climate.
Recently, Geres-India, an NGO, released a report on Climate Change in Ladakh
Region based on data collected over last 35 years. It was observed that
rainfall and snowfall patterns have changed significantly. Temperature at Leh
has risen by nearly one C, less snowfall in winter along with a significant
change in summer precipitation has also been recorded. Less snowfall has caused
drying of natural springs forcing inhabitants to leave their native villages.
One such example is Zanskar, a sub-district of Kargil, where the entire ancient
village of Shum Shadey was forced to migrate due to climate reasons.
While the climate of Ladakh changed considerably, the climate of neighbouring
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), a political entity within Pakistan, has also behaved
differently during same time period. This inconsistent phenomenon was
documented by The University of Newcastle, UK in 2006. The report titled
“Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin” is an
unbiased, neutral testimony that proves that it is not global warming but
Siachen conflict that is not only causing melting of glacier but has also changing
the climate of Ladakh. In the study, the temperature data of six towns of
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and three towns of Indian held Kashmir has been analysed
and compared for seasonal and annual trends over the period between 1961-2000.
The report found that, there is a strong contrast between the behaviours of two
parts of same region having same geographical features. It was noted that while
the temperature in Srinagar and Leh is continually on rise, the mean annual
winter temperature in GB is decreasing.
The declining temperature has helped glaciers to grow in Karakorum. One of the
obvious factors that cannot be ignored is that over past two decades, the
declining trend in high-altitude mountaineering expeditions relieved direct
human intervention. The records of mountaineering expeditions in Pakistan shows
that in seventies, the average per annum mountaineering expeditions were around
65, a number that had dropped to 35 by 2011.
This expansion of glaciers was also confirmed by a research funded by NASA,
published in 2008. The team comprising six renowned glaciologists conducted an
extensive investigation of 265 glaciers to estimate average retreat rates and
mass balance during period 1980 to 2004. The result shows that 65 percent of
the glaciers either advanced or showed no change. The study concluded that the
glaciers in the Karakorum are behaving differently than the other glaciers of
eastern Himalaya.
The study also confirms the results of the world renewed glaciologist Dr
Kenneth Hewitt,, whose work involved research on Karakorum Glacier over
decades. He initiated his research, ‘Snow and Ice Hydrology Project’ with
financial assistance from Canada in 1981. Under this project, 23 high altitude
metrological stations were established, which disseminate real-time data via
satellite daily. In science of glaciology this unusual trend is known as the
‘Karakorum Anomaly.
Global warming cannot be biased, so that it may only impact Siachen glacier and
not the rest of glaciers in Karakorum. The unchallengeable precedence of 62km
Baltoro Glacier, joining its head with Siachen presents itself is an evidence
that military presence is the major cause of melting Siachen. The Baltoro
glacier, free from any burden has remained stable during the last 100 years. This
is a result of two-year exclusive research on glaciers, finalized by three
research organization of Italy, Germany and Austria in 2006. The report (Annals
of Glaciology 43) concluded Baltoro glacier has maintained the mass balance
during the last one century.
The last, the very latest research report of University Grenoble, France,
released in March 2012 concluded that Karakorum glaciers have grown over last
decade. University used the latest technique of 3D altitude maps and satellites
images between 1999 and 2008 and showed that the mass balance of glaciers is
positive.
All these results clearly demonstrate that the glaciers in the Karakorum are
behaving differently, except for the Siachen. The reports with legitimate data
confirm that Siachen is melting simply because of army presence. Whosoever
claims it is because of global warming, let them conduct an independent audit
by a panel of creditable glaciologist for the International Court of Justice so
that the responsibility of 32 years-long adventure can be fixed, which has
caused colossal human, financial and environmental loss. Civil societies of
both the countries, and world community at large, ought to take this case to
demilitarise the third polar cap of the planet.
|
