The
present energy crisis in Pakistan is worsening day by day due to a strange
energy mix, increased reliance on costly oil imports, lack of proactive
approach and ignorance of sustainable options in energy corridors of Pakistan.
High dependency on fossil fuel for electricity generation has drained the
national exchequer, whereas a mounting import bill continues to exert pressure
on the trade deficit and the foreign exchange reserves. The economic growth of
Pakistan has suffered a serious setback coupled with substantial decrease in
GDP, unemployment and civil distress hovering over the nation’s security like
devastating disaster.
In order to eliminate power crisis and to avoid this disaster, the
energy-starved country is now looking forward to import electricity from its
neighbours, ignoring the sustainable alternative once again and given the
associated economic benefits of local job creation and economic activities
arising out of these projects.
This energy crisis would not have transformed into such a gruesome
condition if the substantial contribution would have been made by Renewable
Energy Resources towards the national grid. But, unfortunately, the thermal
explosion due to IPPs inclusion in response to 1994 Power Policy and Rental
Power Plant projects approved by NEPRA in 2009-10 exacerbated the crisis and
diverted the attention towards the cheap, clean and safe renewable resources.
This was a major setback for hydropower development in the country as it came
amidst almost ecstatic fervour that characterised the prevalent crisis
situation. The responsibility also lies with Alternative Energy Development
Board (AEDB) as its prime role was to promote the renewable energy resources
and advocate them rightly. Also, the regulatory authority, NEPRA has so far
failed entirely in facilitating the government to bring forth successful
reforms in power sector and in providing adequate advice and guidance in right
direction.
Currently, Pakistan is importing 70MW for the coastal city of Makran from Iran
at the average price of Rs7/unit. The preparations are also going on for import
of 100MW to Gawadar from Tehran within a few months and 1000MW Iranian
electricity within a few years, taking the total project cost of $694 million,
thus costing Pakistan a huge sum of $440 million for laying transmission lines.
Additionally, in the purview of resolving electricity crisis, the country is
also looking towards India to import 500 MW of electricity from Amritsar to
Lahore. The two countries have decided to build a 220 kV line of 45 km within
six months of the signing of a formal agreement on the proposal. The agreement
will be valid for five years and negotiable for another five years or more. The
average price of energy delivered to Pakistan is estimated at Rs16/unit.
The question here is: would import of electricity from India and Iran be able
to make for the shortfall of 6000-7000MW persisting at present? Also, the
import of electricity from neighbouring countries would definitely subject to
new challenges because Pakistani banks are reluctant to open Letter of Credit
for Iran due to sanctions imposed by the West. In case of India, construction
of dams on Western rivers breaches the Indus Water Treaty. Is this a wise
decision to spend $300-400 million on laying the transmission line for
importing electricity from India at a high cost per unit? Wouldn’t this
decision make the already delayed hydro power projects to suffer a setback
again?
It is also pertinent to mention here that the shortfall is ascribed to
the poor condition and ‘performance’ of the power plants. The power generation
system within the country could be made to cater this increasing demand given
the potential of efficiency improvement and benchmarking the fuel efficiency of
the plants with international standards.
Unfortunately, neither the government of Pakistan has given directions nor has
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) taken any initiative to
improve efficiency of the thermal power plants, thereby exacerbating the
prevalent deteriorating condition and leading to unleashing electricity
shortfall.
Pakistan, along with Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, is also
working on the development of electricity trade through Central South Asia
Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM). A Cross border transmission line project
named as Central Asia South Asia Electricity Trade and Transmission Project
(CASA)-1000 has been proposed for the construction of dedicated link for
supplying 3000 MW of surplus hydro power available during summer from the
Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan at the cost of
US$ 873m, expected to be completed in 2016.
The decision once again overlooked the potential of hydro power
projects in the country and associated benefits with their timely completion.
The projects, which are ready for construction, include Bhasha Dam (4600 MW),
Dasu (3000 MW), and Bunji (7000 MW), with an average cost of Rs1-2/unit, if
completed as per announced operational date.
These projects being labour-intensive would involve the local unskilled labour
and promote the domestic use of construction material and associated
engineering services and goods, thus outweighing the import options.
The writer is a researcher.
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