Climate change is no longer a scientific speculation but is rapidly becoming a reality. South Asian economies have a low capacity for disaster management and adaptation. The devastation caused by natural hazards occurred in South Asia provide ample evidence of its poor capacity to cope with these hazards. The floods of 2010 in Pakistan claimed around 2,000 lives and thousands more became homeless or were injured, a staggering high number in comparison to the worst flooding of Australia that caused 20 casualties (ADB, GoP and WB  2010).

According to Dr. Mahbub ul Haq, a premier economist known as the pioneer of the Human Development Theory (HDP), ‘Human security means, first, safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease and repression. And second, it means protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily life’ (UNDP 1994; p. 23). Climate change has a direct bearing on the two essential components of human security: ‘freedom from fear’ and ‘freedom from want.’ Natural disasters occurring from extreme weather lead to both ‘fear’ and ‘want.’ In the context of South Asian countries, there are at least two components of human security that are likely to be affected severely by climate change: food security and health security. It also leads towards violent conflicts.

Many climate sensitive diseases such as malaria, dengue, cholera, diarrhoea, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are expected to increase as a result of rising temperatures and humidity levels (WHO 2008). Extreme weather events such as flooding also have a direct impact on human health as it increases the risk of drowning and physical injury in addition to exacerbating water-borne infectious diseases such as diarrhoea and cholera due to the destruction of health and sanitation infrastructure.

IPCC reports predict that once Himalayan glaciers recede due to melting; and, precipitation patterns are disrupted due to climate change, droughts are likely to occur in Pakistan and India. Food insecurity is reported to have increased between 2003 and 2009 (see e.g. FAO, 2009). The undernourished population has also gone up in Pakistan from 23.7 million in 1995 to 36.5 million in 2007 (PMDGR  2010).

Climate change induced food and health insecurity may potentially exacerbate trends in radicalisation and support for violent conflicts in Pakistan. Kugelman and Hathaway (2010) argue that out of 22 conflict affected districts in Pakistan (that are either classified as having “Taliban stronghold” or “Taliban presence”), 15 are extremely food insecure.

It can be concluded that there is a dire need to connect dots in a systematic manner and provide empirical evidence on each of these associations. Such a study is extremely crucial to evaluate if South Asian economies need a fresh national security paradigm that balances the need to protect its people from external as well as internal threats. The present study will try to fulfil the existing gap in literature by exploring the impacts of climate change on human security in South Asia. Data from WDI, Terrestrial Air Temperature and precipitation data base and The Global Terrorism Database will be used.

References

ADB, GoP and WB 2010,  ‘Pakistan Floods 2010: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment’,  Asian Development Bank, Government of Pakistan, and the World Bank, Islamabad

FAO 2009, ‘State of food security in the World, Economic crisis-impacts and lessons learnt’, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

Kugelman, M.  and Hathaway, R. M. 2010, Hunger Pains: Pakistan's Food Security,   accessed on 31-12-2011

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ASIA_100412_PakistFood_rptL0713FINALVERSION.pdf

The Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2010, Centre for Poverty Reduction and Social Policy Development, Islamabad

UNDP 1994, Human Development Report , United Nations Development Programme, Oxford University Press, New York

WHO 2008, ‘Climate Change and Health-EB 124/11,’ World Health Organization, Geneva