The communities dependent on mangroves ecosystem of Indus Delta in South Asia continue to be vulnerable, owing to the sensitive linkage of this ecosystem with decreasing fresh water availability and changing climatic parameters. The research intends to explore the links and to determine the dynamics of mangroves forests in line with the socio-economic vulnerability. The characteristics of coastal town of Keti Bandar located in district Thatta, Sindh, of Indus delta was very relevant to our study and was therefore selected. The extracted information is thought to provide valuable information for disaster prevention and preparedness. Computation of composite vulnerability index (CVI) has been implemented in order to gain understanding of natural changes and its resultant societal risks. Although CVI cannot provide absolute trends for future, it can draw a general picture of vulnerable communities and can provide potential trends of risks posed under changing climate. To calculate the cumulative vulnerability index; exposure of climatic factors, sensitivity of mangroves and the community; and adaptive capacity of community were investigated, followed by the computation of CVI. Un-weighted averages and linear transformation were applied to all variables. A range of climatic and socio-economic indicators have been considered; mainly driven through expert opinion, field-survey and literature review. Some of the important variables for exposure are temperature, precipitation and sea-surface temperature; for sensitivity, the variables include mangroves cover, fresh-water availability and natural disasters; and for adaptive capacity they are dependency ratio, income, consumption, migration, family networks etc. Cross sectional data collected through field survey was used for calculating vulnerability and its sub-indices. The results were analysed verily; starting from the bottom of the pyramid, moving towards the composite vulnerability index. The value for composite vulnerability index stood out at 0.55; whereas for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity the figures came out as 0.52, 0.69 and 0.45 respectively. Apart from CVI, the variables have also been discussed separately to draw a line between normal and significant trends within the selected sub-indices.

The vulnerability assessment that has been undertaken will be linked with future climatic scenarios of 2030 and 2050, in the next year of project as it is one of the project activities. These linked scenarios will predict the level of vulnerability faced by community at projected levels under different situation of changing climate and variability in the occurrence of mangroves in future.