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In many parts of the world, global warming is emerging
as a threat to natural resources, human security and development, multiplying and
combining with other security risks. If global greenhouse gas emissions are not
significantly restrained, natural and social systems are vulnerable to climate
stress, including water resources, agriculture and forestry, human health and
settlements, energy systems and the economy. Potential conflict constellations
are water scarcity and food insecurity, biodiversity loss and spread of
diseases, weather extremes and environmental migration. While climate change may
under certain circumstances contribute to violent conflict, it could also lead
to more cooperation on addressing the challenges.
South Asia and the Himalayan region are particularly
exposed to climate change and very sensitive to potential shifts of monsoon
patterns and the melting of glaciers. Environmental changes have a considerable
influence on the distribution of and access to water, food and energy supplies.
Destabilizing the Himalayan "water tower" could pose a threat to millions
of people. Extreme weather events (storms, floods, droughts) and sea-level rise
affect river systems and coastal regions across borders. The complexity of the
geopolitical and socio-economic situation of the region makes it vulnerable to
large-scale environmental changes which pose significant risks and conflict
potentials. Particular attention will be given to human responses that could
lead to increasing displacement and tensions over dwindling resources as well
as to cooperation among affected communities and countries. Key questions will
be discussed:
- Which countries and
societal groups are particular vulnerable to global warming? Which security
risks and societal instabilities are emerging from climate change impacts on Himalaya
glaciers and monsoon patterns? Are there indications for struggles over natural
resources in the region?
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Which measures can
be suggested to strengthen human security, social capital, resilience and
cooperation to reduce climate vulnerability in South Asia and the Himalaya
region?
Which conflict-sensitive
adaptive capacities, institutional frameworks and governance approaches on a
regional to global level are feasible and appropriate? Are there positive
examples?
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