Climate change and security in South Asia and the Himalaya region: Cases of conflict and cooperation
Dr. Jürgen Scheffran*

In many parts of the world, global warming is emerging as a threat to natural resources, human security and development, multiplying and combining with other security risks. If global greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly restrained, natural and social systems are vulnerable to climate stress, including water resources, agriculture and forestry, human health and settlements, energy systems and the economy. Potential conflict constellations are water scarcity and food insecurity, biodiversity loss and spread of diseases, weather extremes and environmental migration. While climate change may under certain circumstances contribute to violent conflict, it could also lead to more cooperation on addressing the challenges.

South Asia and the Himalayan region are particularly exposed to climate change and very sensitive to potential shifts of monsoon patterns and the melting of glaciers. Environmental changes have a considerable influence on the distribution of and access to water, food and energy supplies. Destabilizing the Himalayan "water tower" could pose a threat to millions of people. Extreme weather events (storms, floods, droughts) and sea-level rise affect river systems and coastal regions across borders. The complexity of the geopolitical and socio-economic situation of the region makes it vulnerable to large-scale environmental changes which pose significant risks and conflict potentials. Particular attention will be given to human responses that could lead to increasing displacement and tensions over dwindling resources as well as to cooperation among affected communities and countries. Key questions will be discussed:

  • Which countries and societal groups are particular vulnerable to global warming? Which security risks and societal instabilities are emerging from climate change impacts on Himalaya glaciers and monsoon patterns? Are there indications for struggles over natural resources in the region?
  •   Which measures can be suggested to strengthen human security, social capital, resilience and cooperation to reduce climate vulnerability in South Asia and the Himalaya region?
Which conflict-sensitive adaptive capacities, institutional frameworks and governance approaches on a regional to global level are feasible and appropriate? Are there positive examples?
* Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran is heading the Climate Change and Security Research Group- CLISEC, KlimaCampus, Institute of Geography University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 7, 20144, Hamburg, Germany.