Samuel Huntington’s book, “The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20^th Century” (1991) was followed by Francis Fukuyama’s “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992). Fukuyama declared “institutionalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of governance”. However, we have not reached where he seriously placed us: “the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution”.

Change is the only constant factor in history. Forms of governance adjust to evolving situations. Some theorists see a Fourth Wave splashing the Middle East: others see it is part of the Third Wave’s flow. British colonialism ebbed after the Second Wave, usefully bequeathing English language as a means for South Asian connectivity. All South Asian governments had declared versions of democracy as their chosen form of governance before the Third Wave.

The essence of democracy is its process of decision-making, implementation and governance by regimes, acceptable to the majority of their people who have expressed, through free exercise of the vote, their political, economic and other preferences. However, feelings of exclusion due to class, caste, gender, religious and ethnic disparities sully democratic systems in South Asia. These have led to riot, revolt and rebellion: even terrorism and secessionist tendencies as in Sri Lanka until 2009.  At the 2011 United Nations General Assembly, India’s Prime Minister commented on “growing assertions of separate identities and ethnic, cultural and religious intolerance (which) threaten development efforts and cooperation to combat terrorism.” Such assertions once pressured India into training Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres. More recently, domestic electoral pressures from the Tamilnadu State influenced India’s vote against Sri Lanka on a UNHRC resolution. India, nevertheless, continues assisting Sri Lanka’s post-conflict socio-economic recovery.

Sustainable development requires protecting interests of all communities including in areas remote from prosperous urban centres. Governments should protect rural communities from greedy corporate exploitation. States need to avoid parasitic damage to forest reserves and water resources which sustain millions in rural areas.

There can be no single-fit governance model applicable throughout South Asia. The monarchical system in Bhutan has evolved to function democratically under “Gross National Happiness” criteria. In Nepal, royalty has been replaced and a new political system is being evolved.  A consensual devolution package between Sri Lanka’s Central Government and provinces, in the post-conflict situation is being worked out.

Democracy remains South Asia’s best option. A single conceptual construction applicable to all states need not be forced, nor measured against the Third Wave. This was clear in statements of Heads of States at the last SAARC Summit in November 2011 (SAARC n.d.).

The Third Wave is a reality. The US, as its central mover, is however aware of other major developments shaping global relationships. The United States National Intelligence Council (USNIC) in its last 4-yearly Report (2008) sensed the world moving in major systemic change, including transfer of “global wealth and economic power…from West to East”. The previous Report (2004) predicted China and India rising as powers transforming the “global geo-political scenario”. China and India have signed a “Shared Vision for the 21^st Century” (2008) where democracy, per se, is not a central binding criteria. US-China relations are developing well, whatever the US pre-election debates seemed to portend. The next USNIC Report is currently being finalised this month. A US-Asian axis for sustained global development and governance helpful for South Asia and “the Rest” is likely.

References:

Fukuyama, F. 1992, The End of History and the Last Man, Free Press.

Huntington, S. 1991, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20^th Century, University of Oklahoma Press.

NIC 2008, ‘Global Trends 2025, A Transformed World’, National Intelligence Council, USA.

NIC 2004, ‘Mapping the Global Future, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project’,   National Intelligence Council, USA, <http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf> accessed 27 Nov. 2012.