Socio-economic vulnerability of the mangroves ecosystem to climate change in South Asia: A case study of the Indus and Ganges deltas
Kashif Majeed Salik *
Mobassarul Hasan**
Sadia Ishfaq and Waheed-ul-Zafar Zahdi***
The study intends to understand the socio-economic vulnerability, under changing climate, of the coastal communities that are dependent on the mangroves ecosystem of two important deltas in the South Asia region i.e, Indus and Ganges. These areas are mainly vulnerable due to the sensitive linkages between decreasing fresh water flows, changing climatology and meagre socio-economic conditions. We have used the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) approach in order to draw a general picture of vulnerable communities under a changing climate. We try to answer some key questions about community perceptions about ‘observed and projected climate change’ (IPCC 2014, p. 8) scenarios for example: ‘what are the likely drivers of community sensitivity, what is their impact and what is the coping potential? What should be the key adaptation options for increasing community resilience?’

The outcome of our assessment shows that these coastal communities are highly sensitive and exposed to climate change driven threats. Further, there is lack of adaptive capacity mainly due to poor household consumption patterns, weak income diversification, and high dependency of large families on single-person income. Adaptation options include provision of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities; ensuring environmental flows for mangrove plantations and their users; safeguards against climatic disaster; access to education; and innovation in livelihoods (Zafar 2014, p. 2).

References

IPCC 2014, ‘Summary for Policymakers’, in Field, C.B. (eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32,
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf>, accessed 14 November 2014.

Zahdi, W. 2014, ‘Climate Change and Policy Failures’, SDPI Research and News Bulletin, vol. 21, no. 2, April-June,
<http://www.sdpi.org/publications/files/Vol%2021%20No.%202%20(April%20-%20June%202014).pdf>, accessed 14 November 2014.
* Mr. Kashif Majeed Salik is Research Associate at Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad.
** Md. Mobassarul Hasan works with the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
*** Ms Sadia Ishfaq and Mr. Waheed-ul-Zafar Zahdi also work with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Pakistan.