Ecological assessment of Indus Delta at Keti Bunder, Pakistan: Environmental flow requirements and impacts of climate change-induced river flow changes
Kashif Majeed Salik *
Muhammad Zia-ur-Rahman**
Sadia Ishfaq and Waheed-ul-Zafar Zahdi***
This paper provides an assessment of ecological conditions and its corresponding Environmental Flows (E-Flows) of the Indus delta under various climate change scenarios. Being located in an arid climatic zone and lack of awareness about the importance of E-Flows downstream to Indus Delta, the ecological health of the river and its associated ecosystems (like Keti Bunder) are deteriorating. Therefore, we assessed the existing state of deltaic ecology and categorised it into an arbitrary Environmental Management Class (EMC). Then, using the Global Environmental Flow Calculator, an initial assessment of current E-Flows required for the Indus delta was carried out in April 2013.

Our analysis shows that due to no E-Flow allocations for Indus River that reach downstream to Korti Barrage, there is zero or close to zero flow during most of the year. Under climate change Scenario 1 (increase in river flows due to more glacier melt under warmer climate; and  increase in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and downstream catchments), more flows will be available similar to when there were natural E-Flows (before construction of any water abstractions). This, however, may impose high risks due to flood damage for the highly vulnerable deltaic communities. Under Scenario 2 (decrease in river flows due to no glacier melt contribution following the vanishing of glaciers in the UIB accompanied by reduced precipitation the UIB and downstream catchments), there will be a reduction in flow availability to the extent that E-Flows required under prevailing conditions would not be possible. Consequently, deltaic ecosystems and the socio-economic conditions of the communities therein will deteriorate. Under both scenarios, a viable solution is to interlink the economic and development needs of communities with the environmental flow needs of the Indus delta.
* Mr. Kashif Majeed Salik is Research Associate at Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad.
** Muhammad Zia-ur-Rahman Hashmi works with the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Water resources and Glaciology section, National Centre of Physics Complex, Quaid-i-Azam University Campus, Islamabad, Pakistan.
*** Ms Sadia Ishfaq and Mr. Waheed-ul-Zafar Zahdi also work with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad, Pakistan.