The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that average surface temperature has risen by around 0.6 ºC since the Industrial Revolution of mid 19th century and is predicted to rise further by 1.1 ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century (as quoted in Campbell-Lendrum et al. 2007). Increase in Earth’s surface temperature is taking place much more rapidly today than earlier. According to the Solomon et al. 2007, “eleven of the last twelve years between 1995 and 2006 have been the warmest years in the instrumental record of the Earth’s surface temperature with heat waves becoming much more frequent.”

The ever-increasing incidence of extreme weather events across the globe like the recent floods in Pakistan are a testimony to the validity of the phenomenon of climate change. The ruinous impact of climate change can also be seen by the fast melting of Greenland, West Antarctic and Himalayan glaciers; deterioration of mangrove areas, wetlands and forests (Abbass 2009).

According to UNEP 2000, “climate change is no longer a question of ‘if’ but rather ‘when’ and ‘how’”.  There exists a strong correlation between the emissions and economic growth. Studies imply that economic growth depends on fossil fuel that results in environmental degradation. However, economic growth may bring an initial phase of deterioration, but at the later phase (due to adoption of better abatement technologies) it might bring some improvement in the environmental quality (Grossman and Krueger 1995).

Pakistan is a low income country[1] with poor human development indicators. Its contribution to green house gases (GHG) contributing to climate change is miniscule compared to other countries like China, India and Japan. In 2008, Pakistan’s total GHG emissions was only 309 million tonnes (mt) of CO2 equivalent, yet it is one of the major victims of the adverse effects of climate change (Planning Commission 2010). The recent flooding of 2010 in Pakistan - resulting in an inundation of more than a quarter of the total land area in Pakistan and affecting close to twenty million people[2] - is the most recent as well as the most shocking manifestation of the dire consequences of climate change in the region.

This proposed paper will analyse the impacts of climate change on economic growth in Pakistan. In this regard data of rainfall and temperature will be used as indicator for climate change and per capita GDP will used as measure of economic growth. Keeping in view, the available literature, openness and investment will be used as control variables.  Time series data analysis techniques will be applied to analyse the data for the period 1972-2010. Although results may differ, it is expected that the study will conclude that climate change has a negative impact on economic growth.

References:

Abbass, Zehar 2009, ‘Climate change, poverty and environmental crisis in the disaster prone areas of Pakistan’, Oxfam GB, Pakistan Programme, Islamabad, Pakistan. Campbell-Lendrum, D. Corvalán, Carlos and Neira, M. 2007, “Global climate change: implications for international public health policy”, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 85, no.3, pp. 161-244, <http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/85/3/06-039503/en/index.html> accessed 14 Sept. 2011.

Grossman G. M., and Krueger A.B. 1995, ‘Economic growth and environment’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, no.2, pp. 353-377.

Planning Commission 2010, ‘Final report of the Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)’, Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan.

Solomon, S. et al. 2007 (eds.), ‘Climate change 2007: The physical science basis’, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York.

UNEP 2000, ‘Developing strategies for climate change: The UNEP country studies on climate change impacts and adaptation assessment’, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research and United Nations Environment Programme.

[1]According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, in 2010-11, the per capita GDP of Pakistan was approximately $1, 254.