Climate Change Risks in the Cotton Value Chain - Seed Cotton Production
Sebastian Gollnow*
Samavia Batool**
Fahad Saeed***
For this study, a survey was conducted with the aim to assess climate change risks and adaptation options in seed cotton production, the first stage of the cotton value chain. The survey used structured interviews, focal group discussions and literature research to highlight the current situation of cotton farmers in semi-arid areas of Pakistan. Farms were selected using a multi stage approach. Sampling units were selected based on the three stages and criteria. In stage 1, selection of districts was undertaken. Faisalabad and DG Khan are the two most important cotton producing districts within this area and were therefore selected as the study sites. Stage 2: Three union councils (UC) were selected within DG Khan. One UC in Faisalabad. At Stage 3, a sampling frame was created in collaboration with the local administration. 100 cotton farmers where randomly selected per UC. To ensure that a wide range of farms was included in the sample it was ensured that the 100 farms included a minimum of 25 small/medium and large farms as well 25 landless farmers. 

In DG Khan, case study sites included Kala which was affected by floods from rod kohi (torrent spate irrigation system)  as well as floods from the Indus River; Mana Ahmadani which was moderately affected by floods from rod kohi hill torrents; and Mor Jhangi close to the Indus River and severely affected by floods. In Faisalabad, UC 91 affected by droughts but not flooding was selected.
 
The survey hopes to explore issues like access to climate information; vulnerability to extreme climate events; response to extreme climate events and adaptation patterns; and business enabling environment.

1 Rod Kohi (Torrent spate irrigation) is a traditional irrigation system in Pakistan ‘Rod’ means natural flow of water and ‘kohi’ means mountains. Water coming from hill top as a result of rainfall is then used by low hill population for irrigating fields. As the level of water is dependent on rainfall, it is usually unreliable and often results in floods due to heavy rainfall.
2 Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid economies (PRISE) is a multi-country research project which aims to generate knowledge about how semi-arid economies can be made climate resilient. This paper is conducted as part of research activities under this project. 


* Mr Sebastian Gollnow is a visiting researcher at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. He holds an MSc in Agribusiness from the University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, and is working on climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as sustainable consumption and production projects. Within PRISE , he is the monitoring and evaluation focal point. 
** Ms Samavia Batool is a Research Assistant at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad, Pakistan.
*** Dr Fahad Saeed is a Research Fellow at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad, Pakistan. He also heads the Environment and Climate Change Unit at SDPI.