Cyber Warfare Trends, Tactics and Strategies: Lessons for Pakistan
Rafay Baloch*
We are currently going through an age of digital revolution which is fundamentally changing our lives, and shaping our economy by changing the way we work, live and communicate with one another. However, with the advent of this revolution, Computer Security has gradually evolved from a technology to a business problem, and has now become a health and safety problem too. 

In conventional warfare, the adversary is visible; whereas in cyber warfare since there are no boundaries on the Internet, an adversary can be virtually based at any location and attack.  Cyber warfare is cheap, effective and deniable which makes it an expedient choice for states that want to use espionage, subversion, disinformation and propaganda.  Cyber warfare will decide many of the international conflicts in the future.

It is often argued that cyber ‘warfare’ is not the correct terminology as people do not die as a result.  However, there are examples of people dying directly, e.g., there are multiple reports of Ukrainian artillery soldiers with their mobile phones getting hacked, which were then used to pinpoint geo-locations after which attacks have been carried out on them. Another notable example is of the Ukrainian power grid getting hacked in 2015 to gain access into SCADA networks, disabling UPS systems and tripping power breaks remotely resulting in power failures for approximately 230,000 people in the middle of winter. 

States use cyber warfare for spreading disinformation and propaganda in order to influence public opinion. The most notable example is the American presidential elections held in 2016 in which allegedly Russian-backed hackers accessed the Democratic National Committee (DNC) systems, and email account of John Podesta, Chairman of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, and leaked close to 60,000 emails containing transcripts of paid speeches, and certain controversial comments from staffers about Catholic voters etc. The hidden agenda behind these hacks was to shatter trust of people in their most important democratic process - elections. 

In an age where cyber attacks can shatter the foundations of democracy and economy, states that do not prepare themselves for challenges posed by the digital revolution will flounder during conflicts.  This paper will discuss evolution, tactics and methodologies of cyber attacks being exercised by adversaries in conflicts. It will also analyse attack patterns and future trends of cyberwarfare. In the view of the current cyber security and cyber warfare trends across the world, the Government of Pakistan should consolidate available skills and technology to establish a national agency mandated to conduct cyber security operations in the country to protect its assets; and also be able to effectively respond to any kind of cyber attack on its critical systems during conflict. The paper will, therefore, offer potential solutions and measures the government can take to build effective detection and response capabilities.

* Mr Rafay Baloch, an ethical hacker, is a Cyber Security Advisor at the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, Islamabad. He is known for his discovery of vulnerabilities on the Android operating system. Mr Baloch has been conducting security research for over seven years; and has featured in Forbes, BBC, Wall Street Journal, and The Express Tribune.